被动雷达/红外成像双模制导数据融合方案

提出了被动雷达/红外成像双模制导数据融合方案。针对雷达和红外成像测量数据率不同的特性,研究了被动雷达/红外成像测量输出时间同步校准算法;根据雷达和红外成像测量输出的目标冗余信息对各自测量噪声方差进行在线实时估计,提出了一种具有自适应修正能力的卡尔曼滤波算法;采用神经网络—模糊推理方法设计了具有自主判别能力的测量信息有效性判别系统,提出了基于测量信息置信度的加权融合算法。通过仿真验证了该方案的有效性。     

基于模糊干扰观测器的高超声速飞行器一体化制导控制方法

为充分利用高超声速飞行器在俯冲段的质心运动与绕质心运动之间的耦合作用和飞行过程中的不确定性，基于模糊干扰观测器提出了三维一体化制导与控制问题。首先根据飞行器的动力学方程以及飞行器-目标的视线角相对运动方程，推导出来适用于倾斜转弯控制的一体化制导控制模型。接着，针对模型中的不确定性采用模糊干扰观测器进行补偿，并使用块动态面方法设计了一种一体化制导控制律。然后，通过选取适当的李雅普诺夫函数证明了闭环系统状态的一致毕竟有界性。最后，仿真结果验证了该一体化制导控制方法的有效性和鲁棒性。     

舰船舵减横摇广义预测约束控制

依据舵减摇状态空间模型,推导舵减横摇广义预测控制律,在舵角舵速约束的条件下,采用二次型规划计算控制量进行减横摇控制.对某一船舶在典型航行工况下进行了系统仿真,仿真结果表明,该方法不但可取得35%～45%的减摇效果,而且对横摇角速度与横摇角加速度也有40%左右的减小效果.     

编队协同防空制导交接仿真研究

协同制导是编队协同防空作战中的一种重要作战手段.制导交接又是协同制导中的关键环节.对制导交接方式的选择进行了说明,分析了理想和实际交接区的范围,对水平交接区进行了仿真分析,对协同制导时的航路规划提出了要求.结果表明,只有交接平台以及导弹的相对位置以及导弹航路满足一定要求,才能顺利完成制导交接.     

非线性系统的神经网络广义预测控制

研究了神经网络广义预测控制方法在非线性系统中的应用，基于BP网络构造神经网络预测器，利用非线性系统的开环输入输出数据离线训练神经网络，根据拟牛顿BFGS优化算法使得二次型性能指标函数达到最小，得到了最优的控制序列。同时给出了神经网络广义预测控制算法的步骤，讨论了提高系统鲁棒性的措施。仿真结果表明，这种神经网络预测控制算法具有响应速度快、控制效果好和跟踪精度高等特点。     

舰舰协同制导下舰空导弹水平发射区研究

为增加舰空导弹拦截低空目标的发射时机,研究了舰舰协同制导下舰空导弹水平发射区.首先分别计算了单舰制导和雷达哨舰接力制导下水平发射区;然后在坐标系内合成得到舰舰协同制导下舰空导弹水平发射区.通过仿真比较,得出舰舰协同制导下比单舰制导下目标航路捷径增加了35%左右,舰空导弹水平发射区的纵深显著增加的结论,为舰艇作战指挥决策提供了较好的理论依据.     

Fulfillment by Amazon versus fulfillment by seller: An interpretable risk-adjusted fulfillment model

With dual-channel choices, E-retailers fulfill their demands by either the inventory stored in third-party distribution centers, or by in-house inventory. In this article, using data from a wedding gown E-retailer in China, we analyze the differences between two fulfillment choices—fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) and fulfillment by seller (FBS). In particular, we want to understand the impact of FBA that will bring to sales and profit, compared to FBS, and how the impact is related to product features such as sizes and colors. We develop a risk-adjusted fulfillment model to address this problem, where the E-retailer's risk attitude to FBA is incorporated. We denote the profit gaps between FBA and FBS as the rewards for this E-retailer fulfilling products using FBA, our goal is to maximize the E-retailer's total rewards using predictive analytics. We adopt the generalized linear model to predict the expected rewards, while controlling for the variability of the reward distribution. We apply our model on a set of real data, and develop an explicit decision rule that can be easily implemented in practice. The numerical experiments show that our interpretable decision rule can improve the E-retailer's total rewards by more than 35%.     

月球返回舱再入制导律设计

针对以接近甚至超过第二宇宙速度再入地球的登月飞行器制导任务,研究了满足热流、过载、落区等约束的返回舱再入制导律。月球返回舱是低升阻比弹道升力式再入飞行器,控制策略是改变倾侧角的符号和大小。倾侧角大小的确定转化为一个单变量非线性方程求根的问题,倾侧角符号的确定依倾侧反转逻辑来满足横向走廊,其中横向走廊设计成速度的函数。通过综合偏差的Monte Carlo仿真评价制导算法的性能,仿真结果表明制导的纵向标准偏差在30km左右,横向标准偏差小于5km。此外,分析了影响滚转速率的因素,给出了调整反馈增益系数和减小滚转速率及制导精度的关系。     

多平台对AAM协同制导交接班模型

通过对协同制导交接班的类型进行分析,建立了防空武器系统对AAM(Anti-aircraft Missile)协同制导交接班的坐标转换模型、误差模型及雷达截获概率模型。通过模拟产生随机误差,利用Monte-Carlo方法进行计算,得出不同误差源对协同制导交接班概率影响的定量关系。实验结果证明了所建模型的有效性,误差分析结论可作为协同制导交接班精度控制的依据。     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011